AAN: Oscar predictions - Acting

Welcome to Part Four of my Oscar predictions, the big one that Annual Awards Nerdism for 2011 has been leading up to.


Key:
My Leo – The actor who I want to win
My Zuck – The actor who my predictions want to win
My Steve – The actor who will go home empty handed

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

James Franco lost an arm,
Jeff Bridges lost an eye,
Colin Firth lost his ability to speak,
Javier Bardem probably dies,
Jesse Eisenberg lost his friend,
As you see in the end,
All these men lost something,
But one of them is sure to gain,
A little reward for all their suffering and pain,
It probably won’t go to the Zuck,
Bardem, Bridges and Franco are all out of luck,
Colin Firth will be the one they choose,
As there simply ain’t a way for him to lose.

Last year, Colin Firth was nominated for his first time for his career defining, breathtaking performance in A Single Man. Jeff Bridges won the award, as he was ‘overdue’. This year, Bridges is nominated, but won’t win, because now Firth is nominated, and it would seem that he is ‘overdue’ thanks to what happened last year. Previous winner Javier Bardem doesn’t stand a chance, either.
If I had a vote, it would have to go with either Jesse Eisenberg or James Franco. I feel like Eisenberg won’t have another chance like this, because his performance in The Social Network was like one of those once off kinda deals. I would like Franco to win, simply because he was given a D for an acting class assignment because he was filming 127 Hours. It would be like the ultimate shame if he won (for the marker, that is). But he should worry about hosting the show more.

My Leo: Jesse Eisenberg
My Zuck: Colin Firth
My Steve: Javier Bardem

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

A grieving mother in Rabbit Hole,
Nicole Kidman had the Academy sold,
A crumbling marriage in Blue Valentine,
Michelle Williams’ NC-17 rated film nearly crossed the line,
A girl trying to find her father in Winter’s Bone,
Jennifer Lawrence rose above the films dark tone,
A lesbian meeting her baby daddy in The Kids Are All Right,
Annette Bening may put up the fair fight,
A prima ballerina and the new swan queen,
Probably more famous for that lesbian scene,
Natalie Portman will win for Black Swan,
Unless the voters sanity has gone.

I’ve heard a lot of people saying ‘Natalie Portman won’t win!’ this week. Where is this coming from? Not only has she won like every award, she has the most amazing performance out of the lot of them. The only reasons I can think of that will see her not winning are she’s either too young or an ‘overdue’ Annette Bening could win. I don’t want Annette Bening to win. Her character is just too bitchy.
Jennifer Lawrence is awesome in Winter’s Bone, so I can’t exactly write her off. Having not seen Blue Valentine or Rabbit Hole, I can’t really comment on Michelle Williams and Nicole Kidman being nominated. I respect them both as actresses, and I wish them well. If Natalie Portman doesn’t win? The voters have gone as insane as Nina.

My Leo: Natalie Portman
My Zuck: Natalie Portman
My Steve: Nicole Kidman

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Jeremy Renner got the sole nomination for The Town,
In Winter’s Bone John Hawkes liked to frown,
Mark Ruffalo donated sperm,
Geoffrey Rush’s voice techniques helped the King learn,
But did any of these actors lose lots of weight?
Christian Bale’s nomination has come a tad late,
There’s no way that he can’t win,
Even if this isn’t the best film he’s ever been in.

Yeah so, Christian Bale will win. The only competition he has is Geoffrey Rush, who won the BAFTA. But that can’t really taint his chances, surely?
I may have doubted John Hawkes before, but since seeing the film I thought he rocked. Though, I could have replaced him for an Andrew Garfield nomination. I haven’t seen The Town, but I’m glad that Jeremy Renner got another nomination for the second year in a row. He’s such a brilliant actor. Mark Ruffalo is awesome, too, but I’m more surprised that this is his first nomination. Maybe I overrate his brilliance, but the guy could be classed as ‘overdue’ too.
Christian Bale deserves it most, though.

My Leo: Christian Bale
My Zuck: Christian Bale
My Steve: Jeremy Renner

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

I’m Team Jacki Weaver, all the way,
But an Amy Adams win shouldn’t be far away?
Helena Bonham Carter is an amazing royal,
Melissa Leo plays a mum tough and loyal,
Hailee Steinfeld is cute and sweet,
Even though she plays the lead,
But who could win, I don’t know?
Melissa Leo will probably steal the show,
Unless the photo controversy hurts her odds,
So, Academy...you know I love you lots,
Leo and Carter are good, but don’t pick either,
Go for the underdog, JACKI WEAVER!

It’s the same everywhere. Anyone who has seen Animal Kingdom will agree that Jacki Weaver delivers the best performance out of all of these lovely ladies, but the size of the project and perhaps the country it hails from hurts her chances. My next choice would have to be Amy Adams. She has been nominated three times, in this very category, without any luck. With this being her best performance, surely they would give her the gong? Well, I hope they do. But her costar Melissa Leo will get it, as she has got everything else, unless her self-advertising controversy stalls her.
Hailee Steinfeld is becoming a likelier choice by the day. The problem is, she is essentially the lead role, so she should have been nominated there, and it just won’t seem fair if she wins. Helena Bonham Carter is also likely, after her BAFTA win. She could have the ‘overdue’ cloud hanging over her, which could get her the votes that Melissa Leo lost. Maybe I just don’t want Leo to win.

My Leo: Jacki Weaver
My Zuck: Melissa Leo
My Steve: Jacki Weaver

There's todays lot...the second time I've written it (stupid Blogger deleting it all as soon as I published it). Tomorrow I will rank the Best Pic nominees. See you then!