AAN: Oscar predictions - Writing and Directing

Welcome to Part Three of my Oscar predictions - the big one that Annual Awards Nerdism for 2011 has come down to.

Key:

My Leo - Coolness. I want it to beat the crap out of the competition.

My Zuck - This one will win. For better or for worse.

My Steve - I will weep into my laptop keyboard if this wins.

Todays categories are:

-Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

-Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

-Best Achievement in Directing

Let's hop to it, shall we?

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

Toy Story 3 had lots of kiddie charm,
127 Hours made its lead lose an arm,
The Coens reinvented westerns with True Grit,
Winter's Bone didn't make me laugh one bit,
All these screenplays may put up a good fight,
and it's proven that all these people can wonderfully write,
but for this award there's only one walk-in,
and that's The Social Network's Aaron Sorkin.

My poetry skills serve as an insult to these very talented writers, I know, but I'm in the rhyming kind of mood at the moment, so let this be a warning: more poetry follows. Something fun, yes?
Anyway. Having seen all of these films (Winter's Bone review coming up tomorrow), I think I can count myself as a bit of an expert. But that's no use when it is as plain as the protruding nose on my face that Aaron Sorkin will win this one. If he doesn't...well, that would be like giving Best Picture to Sex and the City 2. He should win it for the opening scene alone. If only I could write like that man, I would be happy.
But let's not forget the other worthy contestants.
127 Hours has a nice script by Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy. I'm incidentally (and slowly) reading the original book by Aron Ralston, which is harrowing stuff, and somehow Boyle and Beaufoy managed to translate the descriptive will-to-live material onto the screen without much effort, and I respect that.
The Coens have always been well able screenwriters, and that is shown by winning two other awards for their writing abilities. Their scriptwork and characterization in True Grit is amazing, but I think they should take the year off, don't you?
Will someone please tell me how Toy Story 3 is an adapted screenplay and true stories like The Fighter and The King's Speech aren't? My second choice is this one, because it made me laugh, happy inside, and cry my eyes out more than I ever had until I watched Requiem for a Dream. And, if you ask me, it's damn good entertainment for every age group.
Winter's Bone is depressingly bleak, but I surprisingly liked it. The scriptwork was good too. I liked the way they captured the world in Ozarks and a chick kicking ass. The scenes towards the end still continue to haunt my dreams.

My Leo: The Social Network
My Zuck: The Social Network
My Steve: Winter's Bone

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

 
There was a surprising deserved nom for Another Year,
the Academy also went for The Fighter's boxing fare,
The King's Speech came back for another bite,
there's some funnies here with The Kids Are All Right,
the Academy may hate Chris Nolan it would seem,
but they nominated his script which dared to dream,
I hope that Inception can take it all,
for it was the movie which asked 'Did the spinning top fall?'
 
Fun Oscar fact I figured out myself: Black Swan is the only Best Pic nominee not nominated for a screenplay award. Taking its place is Mike Leigh's screenplay for Another Year, a movie which I haven't seen but have heard plenty of good things about. The Kids Are All Right gets a well deserved nod here, along with true story-based The Fighter.
Hey, the party is over here. Will Inception or The King's Speech win? If you asked me for the answer to this question just before the awards season started, I would have gone with Inception hands down. As awards season progressed, my heart was still with Inception but The King's Speech won everything. Then a miracle happened. Inception won big at the WGAs, but The King's Speech wasn't in contention. So, the stats would say that The King's Speech will be the big winner, yes? No. I refuse to stoop to that level. I haven't given up hope on Inception. After all, Chris Nolan is already overdue, they snubbed him so all the backlash from that should get my boy some votes, and, look at it this way: his script is virtually the meaning of 'original'. As original as you can get.
I don't care for all the hoopla surrounding The King's Speech. Inception and Chris Nolan are still my main men.
 
My Leo: INCEPTION!
My Zuck: Inception
My Steve: Another Year
 

Best Achievement in Directing

I'm still getting over the Chris Nolan snub,

but these directing men folk seem nice enough,

Darren Aronofsky showed us how ballet is done,

The Coens showed us how the west was won,

Tom Hooper's film got approval by the Queen,

David O. Russell tried to get Christian Bale clean,

David Fincher may do lots of films on disturbing tales,

but we all know he is a director who never fails,

here he hits the jackpot with a movie about the net,

and he makes The Social Network a film we can't forget.

Let's get this out of the way first: I like David O. Russell and The Coens direction. But Danny Boyle and especially Chris Nolan should have been nominated. They were just better, y'know?

For me, this race is a three way between Tom Hooper, Darren Aronofsky and David Fincher. Why?

David Fincher has won lots of directorial awards, including the Golden Globe and BAFTA. And hey, look at his filmography. Surely, all the greatness from that list makes him worth the votes? While I can see him gaining similar attention for his upcoming The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, this year he's going to shine.

Tom Hooper won the DGA. While his work isn't amazing, there are a lot of things that could point him to a win. The main reason being: all the awards hype surrounding The King's Speech. The Best Pic winner generally wins Best Director too. But who said The King's Speech will win Best Pic? Also, the Academy love new blood. Especially if it's British.

Darren Aronofsky could possibly sneak the upset. His filmography, though select, could work in his favour. You gotta admit, his work in Black Swan is beautiful. Hopefully the voters will see the light and vote for this deserving man. But that's probably a long way off...

My Leo: Darren Aronofsky

My Zuck: David Fincher

My Steve: David O. Russell

So that's it for tonight. Sorry if I have damaged you with my bad poetry skills. Tomorrow I will take a look at all the acting awards. Until then, Au Revoir!