AAN: Oscar Predictions - Writing and Directing

Welcome to part three of my official Oscar predictions, the big one that this season of Annual Awards Nerdism has boiled down to. Tonight I'll be looking at Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Original Screenplay and Best Director. 
PAST PREDICTIONS: 'Bests' and Visuals; Sound and Design.

Just in case you are not familiar with how Fassy, Loki and Owen are used for predictions, here is a refresher:
Happy Fassy - If this person wins, I will let out a squeal in my biology class that will probably get my phone taken off me...why do I have to have school while the Oscars are on?
Lowkey Loki - This is the only prediction you should really listen to, because it is the one who I think will take home the prize.
Overwhelmed Owen - There ain't no way this movie is going to win that prize.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash - The Descendants / John Logan - Hugo / George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon - The Ides of March / Steven Zallian, Aaron Sorkin, Stan Chevrin - Moneyball / Bridget O'Connor, Peter Straughan - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

I have not seen the March that has Ides,
and I still fail to get my tongue around Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy,
but the film loving Hugo left me impressed,
I was one of the few who thought The Descendants was a mess,
Moneyball was the one who united two screen-writing Gods,
since we're talking baseball it should have the best odds,
but The Descendants has George Clooney and kids,
so I wouldn't be surprised if it actually wins,
I'll just have to sit in my bitter disappointment party alone,
and wish that the winner was really Hugo.

While I did like The Descendants to some degree, I'm not one of the ones who has been singing it's praises at each corner. I actually think that it is probably the most overrated film of 2011. The screenplay itself was just okay...it did well with the realism and the lack of sentimentality, but I did not think that the character of Sid was very well-written at all. In fact, he is one of the worst written characters I've seen in quite some time. So I have to wonder why so many people love this film, because he was a real deal-breaker for me. (and rant is over) The Descendants has a good chance of taking this award since it won the WGA, but I wouldn't count out Moneyball since Steven Zallian and Aaron Sorkin did such a bloody awesome job with it. I think Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy could pull an upset, too. Look to this as one of the more exciting categories of this year's Oscars.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist / Kristen Wiig, Annie Mumolo - Bridesmaids / J.C. Chandor - Margin Call / Woody Allen - Midnight in Paris / Asghar Farhadi - A Separation

Out of the five I've only seen two,
and one of those will win by a few,
Midnight in Paris is an English nerd's dream,
with everyone from Hemingway to Salvador Dali,
Bridesmaids is all about shitting in a sink,
I'm sure that A Separation makes you think,
Margin Call is all about the smart,
The Artist is, well, pure art,
while it may be short on words,
it seems to be flying as high as the birds,
this will be the year nostalgia goes head to head,
but I hope Midnight in Paris comes out ahead.

I think it is pretty safe to say that Midnight in Paris will definitely win this award, but I wouldn't rule out The Artist and it's BAFTA win/probable takeover of the Oscars. However, if Midnight in Paris doesn't win this award, you will hear my cries no matter how far away you are from NZ. And I'm not even a huge fan of Woody Allen.

Best Achievement in Directing

Woody Allen - Midnight in Paris / Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist / Terrence Malick - The Tree of Life / Alexander Payne - The Descendants / Martin Scorsese - Hugo  

This is actually quite the tight race,
with Michel Hazanavicius setting the pace,
right behind him Martin Scorsese's film for kids,
and then there is Terrence Malick's artistic bid,
Woody Allen's huge nostalgia-fest,
Alexander Payne trying his best,
which one will win? I can't decide,
with Best Picture this is sure to abide,
so Michel Hazanavicius will take the award home,
which won't cause me to moan and groan,
even if I think it should be Malick's year,
for the beauty he created made me shed a tear.

Yeah, I'm in the Terrence Malick camp, but he has next to know chance of winning this award. It is very much a race between Michel Hazanavicius (DGA winner) and Martin Scorsese (Golden Globe winner), but everyone else is on practically equal footing. I wouldn't rule out an upset in this category, but I'm hesitant to predict anyone other than Hazanavicius.

There are my predictions - what are yours? And sorry for the bad quality of poetry. I'm not very good at it, but I find it fun to rhyme words. Be back tomorrow for my acting predictions!