AAN: Early Awards Forecast - The Gotham Winners and the Indie Spirit Noms

Awards season has officially kicked off now, with yesterday's Gotham Awards winners and today's Independent Spirit Nominations being announced. For those wondering if I'm going to unveil the new 'Happy Fassy', 'Lowkey Loki' and 'Overwhelmed Owen' for this year, you'll have to wait until the Golden Globes nominations roll around next month. For now, this is just a forecast to see how awards season could swing. Because, after all, awards season is a season of the year. Who knows if we'll have a storm on our hands or we can blitz through it with only sunshine?

Gotham Awards winners (winners in bold, nominees in italics)

Best Film: Bernie, The Loneliest Planet, The Master, Middle of Nowhere, Moonrise Kingdom
Breakthrough Director: Zal Batmanglij - Sound of My Voice, Brian M. Cassidy and Melanie Shatsky - Francine, Jason Cortlund and Julia Halperlin - Now Forager, Antonio Mendez Esparza - Here and There, Benh Zeitlin - Beasts of the Southern Wild
Breakthrough Actor: Mike Birbiglia - Sleepwalk with Me, Emayatzy Corinealdi - Middle of Nowhere, Thure Lindhardt - Keep the Lights On, Melanie Lynskey - Hello I Must Be Going, Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild
Best Ensemble Perofrmance: Bernie, Moonrise Kingdom, Safety Not Guaranteed, Silver Linings Playbook, Your Sister's Sister
Best Documentary: Detropia, How to Survive a Plague, Marina Abramovic: The Artist is Present, Room 237, The Waiting Room
Best Film Not Playing in a Theatre Near You: Kid-Thing, An Oversimplification of Her Beauty, Red Flag, Sun Don't Shine, Tiger Tail in Blue

What kind of forecast this brings for awards season: I think a whole lot of people were expecting the Gotham Awards to give an early boost to The Master, but it didn't happen. They swung the way of Moonrise Kingdom - but I'm not entirely sure that that movie will end up sustaining enough energy for the rest of the season. A few other notes, though:
-Quvenzhane Wallis missed out for Beasts of the Southern Wild - which begs the question, will this be the indie hit in awards season still? Or will her place go to another older actress?
-This Middle of Nowhere seemed to be quite a hit. Could be a dark horse.
-Bernie is getting a whole lot of loving, too. I doubt it could carry on into the heart of awards season, but it seems that we should be a whole lot more aware of it.
-And I've gotta say, since when was Melanie Lynskey a breakthrough actor? She had her breakthrough before I was born. Still, I'm happy to see her getting some recognition.

Independent Spirit nominations

Best Film: Beasts of the Southern Wild, Bernie, Keep the Lights On, Moonrise Kingdom, Silver Linings Playbook
Best Director: Wes Anderson - Moonrise Kingdom, Julia Loktev - The Loneliest Planet, David O. Russell - Silver Linings Playbook, Ira Sachs - Keep the Lights On, Benh Zeitlin - Beasts of the Southern Wild
Best Female Lead: Linda Cardellini - Return, Emayatzy Corinealdi - Middle of Nowhere, Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook, Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild, Mary Elizabeth Winstead - Smashed
Best Male Lead: Jack Black - Bernie, Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook, John Hawkes - The Sessions, Thure Lindhardt - Keep the Lights On, Matthew McConaughey - Killer Joe, Wendell Pierce - Four
Best Supporting Female: Rosemarie DeWitt - Your Sister's Sister, Ann Dowd - Compliance, Helen Hunt - The Sessions, Brit Marling - Sound of My Voice, Lorraine Toussaint - Middle of Nowhere
Best Supporting Male: Matthew McConaughey - Magic Mike, David Oyelowo - Middle of Nowhere, Michael Pena - End of Watch, Sam Rockwell - Seven Psychopaths, Bruce Willis - Moonrise Kingdom
Best Screenplay: Keep The Lights On (Ira Sachs and Mauricio Zacharias, Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola), Ruby Sparks (Zoe Kazan), Seven Psychopaths (Martin McDonagh), Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)
Best First Screenplay: Celeste & Jesse Forever (Rashida Jones and Will McCormack), Fill the Void (Rama Burshtein), Gayby (Jonathan Lisecki), Robot & Frank (Christopher Ford), Safety Not Guaranteed (Derek Connolly)
Best First Feature: Fill the Void, Gimme the Loot, The Perks of Being a Wallflower, Safety Not Guaranteed, Sound of My Voice
The John Cassavetes Award: Breakfast with Curtis, The Color Wheel, Middle of Nowhere, Mosquito Y Mari, Starlet
Best Cinematography: Beasts of the Southern Wild (Ben Richardson), End of Watch (Roman Vasyanov), Here (Lol Crawley), Moonrise Kingdom (Robert Yeoman), Valley of Saints (Yoni Brook)
Best International Film: Amour, Once Upon a Time in Anatolia, Rust and Bone, Sister, War Witch
Best Documentary: The Central Park Five, How to Survive a Plague, The Invisible War, Marina Abramovic: The Artist is Present, The Waiting Room
The Robert Altman Award: Starlet

What kind of forecast this brings for awards season: Quite an interesting one, I must say.
-YAY for Matthew McConaughey's double nod. I saw Magic Mike last night and I can totally see him getting an Oscar nomination. However, I'm extra happy that his work in Killer Joe got recognised. I wasn't sure if it was eligible, since it technically first surfaced in 2011, but if it is, I'm starting a campaign. It is kinda funny, because I never used to like McConaughey, but now he has given my two favourite male performances of the year. You go, Glen Coco.
-So basically, Silver Linings Playbook will sweep these awards. Just like it might sweep the Oscars. Interesting Robert De Niro snub, as I thought he had a better chance of getting a nomination than Bradley Cooper. Jennifer Lawrence will probably end up winning her category, though.
-Looks as if Ann Dowd got the push she needed for a Compliance nomination. I wouldn't take your chips down just yet - as I said, we could have a Jacki Weaver nomination this year.
-Bernie is still ever-present.
-I'm happy for Mary Elizabeth Winstead, even though I haven't seen Smashed. This could give her a big push, but there's not a lot of air in that Best Actress race.
-Yay for Zoe Kazan, too. I haven't seen Ruby Sparks, but I adore her.
-Beasts of the Southern Wild is prominently featured. I do think it will get the indie nomination in the Best Picture category.
-There's no Marion Cotillard for Rust and Bone, which could really hurt her chances.
-I was hoping that these awards would picks up The Perks of Being a Wallflower a lot more and maybe send a nomination in the way of Logan Lerman and Ezra Miller. Alas, it only got 'Best First Feature', which seems like a bit of a consolation prize more than anything.

These two awards give us the outlook on how some of the smaller films will fare for the rest of awards season. The future is looking mostly bright for films like Beasts of the Southern Wild and Silver Linings Playbook, and Matthew McConaughey is coming into this race a lot stronger than we once thought he would. What do you think will happen to the awards race now?